2024
Looking Ahead
Predictions, trends, and scenarios to help social impact and sustainability leaders prepare for the year ahead
When NationSwell surveyed 74 corporate social impact and sustainability executives in July 2023, nearly 7 out of 10 said they’re anticipating a challenging year in 2024. Since then, we’ve witnessed an intensifying wave of anti-DEIB activism, read the dire warnings conveyed in the UNFCCC’s first Global Stocktake, and felt the surge of collective anxiety around the coming elections in the U.S. and around the world. At the same time, powerful examples of collective action, new and transformational technologies, and the continued resolve of purpose-driven leaders demand our attention and urge optimism into the picture.
At NationSwell, we too are resolved. We are resolved to support our membership community, partners, and concerned public in advancing progress on the issues that matter most.
At NationSwell
At NationSwell, we too are resolved. We are resolved to support our membership community, partners, and concerned public in advancing progress on the issues that matter most.
To ground our collective efforts, we have prepared this 2024 outlook with several goals in mind:
01
To orient organizations, leaders, and their teams to the issues and trends that we see mattering most in 2024, supported by detailed evidence
02
To provide line of sight into the predictions and forecasts of experts steeped in those issues
03
To support scenario planning around a range of inevitabilities and possibilities
04
To voice our calls to action for the field and for ourselves
Major Topics for 2024
Stay up to date with the latest trends and insights in our industry.
Democracy & Civic Engagement
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Democracy and Civic Engagement
Predictions & Forecasts
In 2024, the policing of corporate morality by elected Republican leaders and far right activists will escalate against a backdrop of greater global instability and intense destabilizing pressure on American democracy.
Dr. Larry Johnson, Jr.
President, Guttman Community College
“Local, state, and federal legislators must take a bold interrogation to determine what in fact it means to be a socially just nation where all persons and their likeness are considered a beautiful tapestry that makes us the greatest and most advanced democracy in the world.”
Greg Behrman
Founder & CEO, NationSwell
“While 2024 will be wildly difficult to predict, we do know that we can expect turbulence and volatility. That means anticipating and planning now will be vital to moving through the year on our front feet rather than our back heels.
Everyone should begin developing protocols and playbooks to navigate this election year. Everyone will want to assess now what capabilities and levels of engagement they are willing and able to contribute. By this time next year, we'll all want to feel like we stepped up in the right ways for democracy, election integrity and the issues that matter most to us – and that work must begin now.”
Ray Reyes
Chief Program Officer,
The Opportunity Network
“In 2024, there will continue to be shifts in policy at the federal and state level to slow or stop progress that's been made in social impact and sustainability.”
Democracy and Civic Engagement
Trends To Watch
Geopolitical instability is increasing around the world, and with it the risk of conflict and market turmoil.
Amidst a global rise in authoritarianism, U.S. democracy faces unprecedented threats.
Elected Republican leaders and far right activists are going to continue their efforts to discourage companies from leading with their values.
The public will look to businesses, above other institutions, as a trusted source of information, stability, and guidance on civic engagement. For companies, stepping up may be good for business.
Democracy and Civic Engagement
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of Democracy and Civic Engagement in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
Democracy and Civic Engagement
Call To Action
Businesses stand out as the most trusted American institutions.
With this trust, companies have a moral and strategic imperative to take stock, plan, and lead on the protection and promotion of the public interest in a well-functioning democracy, despite political and rhetorical efforts to prevent corporations from acting on their values.
Climate Progress
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Climate Progress
Predictions & Forecasts
At a moment of increased clarity on just how far behind we are in meeting climate goals, 2024 will be a year of compounding goals and obligations of corporate sustainability programs, with parallel and growing focuses on decarbonization, biodiversity, water conservation, waste reduction, resilience, and more. New regulations and frameworks are on their way to help businesses revamp their commitments and mitigate climate change’s worst effects.
Julia Collins
Founder and CEO,
Planet FWD
“In 2024, Carbon is the new Calories. This year, carbon transparency will grow in importance. New legislation, such as California’s SB 253, will demand food, beverage and consumer business leaders to report on carbon and their emissions. To meet these new requirements, I expect we’ll see an influx of food companies looking for technology solutions to help them measure, report, and reduce their carbon emissions. Once they’ve uncovered this data about their products, the natural next step is carbon transparency, the same way we see nutrition labels. Consumer companies that want to lead will start early, report comprehensively, and will align their reporting with broader sustainability and business strategies moving forward.”
Jason Rissman
Chief Experience Officer, NationSwell
“Companies will disregard sustainability backlash noise and invest more than ever in climate progress.”
Maria Flynn
President and CEO,
Jobs for the Future
“In 2024, unprecedented government, philanthropic, and corporate investments in climate and sustainability will outpace the availability of skilled workers in these fields. This labor market mismatch threatens to bring the reverse of the Obama-era green jobs investments that resulted in trained workers but no jobs. Funders and investors need to intentionally invest in both the supply and demand sides of the equation as well as the navigational supports that will be needed for workers.”
Chante Harris
Climate Tech Investor, Operator & Advisor, Founder & Managing Partner, Stealth Investment Platform
“2024 will continue to be an unprecedented year for investment in and big wins in the decarbonization of infrastructure. From the $12.5 billion acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners by BlackRock to General Atlantic's recent acquisition of Actis, this year is shaping up to be one of the biggest where we see investors double down on clean energy adoption through distributed and large capital projects across shipping ports, data centers, railroads, and others. This moment presents a unique opportunity for highly competitive risk-adjusted returns that integrate incumbent and promising emerging technology solutions at scale while bettering communities' resiliency, well-being, and overall health.”
Climate Progress
Trends To Watch
The UN’s 2023 global stocktake affirms that we are trending behind the progress needed to hit the Paris goals, and that the window to ensure a livable future is closing quickly.
With new regulations coming into force in the EU and U.S., companies will need to comply with more detailed, enhanced climate reporting than they have previously.
As companies race to net zero, they’re leaning heavily into the voluntary carbon market to offset their emissions. As greenwashing concerns swirl, new efforts are underway to scrutinize and verify carbon offsets.
Circularity is a very small part of the global economy, but more robust regulation could bring it mainstream.
Historically, companies have not understood their influence on biodiversity or made commitments to preserve it. Now, fueled in part by emergent standards and frameworks, they’re increasingly adopting and investing in biodiversity and nature-based targets.
Climate Progress
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of Climate Progress in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
Climate Progress
Call To Action
No single organization is yet able to do it all, but on top of an elevated floor created by regulators, every business must look for their opportunity to set the pace and lead on innovation, progress, and impact in at least one facet of their climate work.
DEIB & Economic Opportunity
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DEIB & Economic Opportunity
Predictions & Forecasts
In 2024, significant headwinds facing DEIB and racial equity investments will contend with growing public support of workers and promising public and private initiatives aimed to promote economic transformation for historically marginalized groups.
Gwyneth GaulVice President,
Strategic Partnerships & Philanthropy,
Comcast NBCUniversal
“While we are not scaling back our commitments or approach to working with our partners, in this polarized environment and in an election year, I do expect we will see declines in the intentional focus on investing in proximate leaders and communities of color. This will be important to track and pay attention to throughout the year.”
Maria Flynn
President and CEO, Jobs for the Future
“In 2024, fueled by the Supreme Court ruling on affirmative action and the political headwinds of the election year, we’ll continue to see companies either pull back from DEIB commitments or pursue them much more cautiously.
The impact of this could be a “whitewashing” of the real equity gaps that exist around access to quality jobs. It’s imperative that leaders across sectors retain a push for equitable opportunity for all, articulate the business case for these efforts—diverse teams still perform better—and build that messaging in a way that unifies rather than divides. Companies will ideally recognize that dropping degree requirements will be key to creating more diverse and robust talent pipelines during a tight labor market.”
Amy Lee
Chief Strategy Officer & Managing Director, Studio,
NationSwell
“2024 will see AI increase its integration into the development of solutions to social issues, including accelerating innovation to create more equitable pathways to opportunity. For example, AI could be key to giving us a way to understand and translate people's skills at scale, thus tipping us toward making skills-based hiring a practical reality for companies (and HR software systems) across America.”
DEIB & Economic Opportunity
Trends To Watch
Workers’ rights and economic opportunity are the subjects of increased public attention and agreement about the role of the corporation in advancing societal interests.
To improve economic mobility, companies are embracing skills-based training and hiring as a win-win for workers and business.
Philanthropic commitments to equity and economic opportunity are relatively steady.
Some conservative activists and Republican legislators are threatening DEIB practices and equity-focused financial investments.
Internal DEIB practices are fragile and a significant area of concern for employees.
DEIB & Economic Opportunity
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of DEIB & Economic Opportunity in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
DEIB & Economic Opportunity
Call To Action
Despite legal headwinds, companies and funders must lean into their opportunity to create a more equitable and just economy; they'll be bolstered by growing public support for their efforts.
Employer-Employee Compact
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Employer-Employee Compact
Predictions & Forecasts
The terms of the traditional employer-employee compact have shifted significantly over the past three years; 2024 will further sharpen and clarify the risks associated with maintaining legacy engagement models and pursuing incremental changes to this foundational relationship.
Patrice CromwellVice President, Center for Economic Opportunity, Annie E. Casey Foundation
“With a continuing tight labor market, corporations in 2024 will need to deepen their worker engagement efforts to promote retention.”
Chloe Lew
Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships & Innovation,
NationSwell
“Workplaces will invest in conflict resolution as a key managerial skill, particularly as crises and contentious topics enter the workplace and place significant responsibility on middle management as custodians of organizational culture.”
AiLun Ku
Senior Advisor,
NationSwell
“The demand for psychological safety at work will increase exponentially as institutions navigate the anti-DEIB backlash and brace for an election year.”
Employer-Employee Compact
Trends To Watch
Employees increasingly expect their workplace to be a space that is not only aligned on their social values, but actively promoting those values. When that’s not the case, employers can expect employees to vocalize their dissatisfaction.
Employees are sustaining their expectations that workplaces should offer hybrid and flexible work since the pandemic, despite employers reporting other plans.
Employees, particularly of younger generations, want their work to be part of a well-lived life, rather than the central tenet of life. They’re changing what it means to be ambitious.
Financial wellbeing is at a critically low point for employees, signaling an opportunity for employers to race to the top.
More employees are taking on gig work either as a primary job or as a supplement in order to boost their financial security. The growth of the gig economy is exposing a major equity gap.
Employer-Employee Compact
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of Employer-Employee Compact in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
Employer-Employee Compact
Call To Action
2024 represents a critical window of opportunity for employers to reimagine the core tenets of the employer-employee relationship, continuing a trend since 2020 to move toward inclusive capitalism.
New forms of collaboration between employers and employees to establish a mutual compact will earn a more sustainable, healthy, equitable, and productive workforce while catalyzing a wider race to the top.
Artificial Intelligence
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Artificial Intelligence
Predictions & Forecasts
In 2024, new applications and breakthrough advancements of artificial intelligence (AI) will be met by nascent efforts to regulate and govern the technology. While necessary, those efforts will remain fragmented across many jurisdictions, leaving ample space for the technology to develop without much control.
Octavia Abell
Co-Founder & CEO,
Govern for America
“My prediction is that 2024 will be the year of government implementation. State and local governments will get serious about addressing their workforce challenges and considering the role of AI in order to better achieve their policy priorities. It will be critical for the public and private sectors to work collaboratively in order to leverage technology to deliver better outcomes and mitigate potential harms.”
Josh Penny
Director, Social Impact,
Hinge
“In 2024, our nonprofit partners will be thinking about what AI means for them; can brands be a bridge for them?”
Jean-Claude Brizard
President and CEO,
Digital Promise
“In 2024, we will see a major global summit on AI and its impact on education and the future of work. This summit will be akin to what we saw on climate in Dubai. This summit will pave the way for policy guardrails and innovation in education and work.”
Alejandro Gibes de Gac
CEO & Founder,
Springboard Collaborative
“In 2024, AI-powered robo-tutors will continue to flood the K12 education market. They will not, however, make a transformative impact on student learning. The true power of AI is not in replacing human connection, but rather, in facilitating human-to-human connection and collaboration: teachers with families, and parents with their children.”
Artificial Intelligence
Trends To Watch
Business leaders see value in AI, and adoption is quickly climbing.
AI can positively transform the worker experience and improve economic mobility, but workers aren’t getting the upskilling they want and need.
Concern is widespread about the risks AI poses – to privacy, intellectual property, misinformation, climate, and humanity itself.
Regulation and guidelines surrounding the development and use of AI are coming, but it is unlikely they will sync up in the near term as different jurisdictions take different stances.
While AI's applications in social impact and sustainability programming remain relatively nascent, major technology companies are taking big swings; their efforts will likely pull the rest of the field along.
Artificial Intelligence
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of Artificial Intelligence in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
Artificial Intelligence
Call To Action
As governments begin to form a regulatory point of view, private sector organizations must collaborate to develop ethics and guidelines for AI usage in order to ensure public safety and trust.
Technology creators, users, and investors must adopt a “human-first” approach to the ways they create, use, and govern AI in order to maximize human benefit and minimize human harm.
Social Impact + Sustainability Profession
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Social Impact + Sustainability Profession
Predictions & Forecasts
Propelled forward by new regulations and a strong business case, sustainability leaders will continue to gain much needed investment and support from executives. At the same time, social impact leaders – particularly those responsible for DEIB – will confront a deficit of engagement and resourcing, resulting in uneven momentum between environmental and social goals.
Anne Wales
Senior Program Manager, Strategy & Operations,
Medtronic Foundation
“This year we anticipate seeing even more focus on integrating social impact into everyday business functions.”
Greg Behrman
Founder & CEO,
NationSwell
“It's bound to be a bumpy ride for leaders in the space, given developments at home and abroad. The fundamental imperatives driving social impact and sustainability work are as strong as ever. So, those with vision, clear guiding principles, internal stakeholder alignment, a solid case demonstrating business value and strong and proactive approaches to stakeholder communication will be well-positioned to do their best and most impactful work – and meet the moment.”
Chloe Lew
Senior Vice President, Strategic Partnerships & Innovation,
NationSwell
“In 2024, collaboration will be a critical competitive edge for social impact and sustainability professionals. With changing regulations and increased scrutiny, alongside economic uncertainties and geopolitical challenges, impact leaders must not only lead their organizations but also mobilize their counterparts in other organizations, even those traditionally considered competitors, in order to meet shared goals while maximizing resource efficiencies.”
Social Impact + Sustainability Profession
Trends To Watch
Regulatory requirements and a strong business case are motivating companies to invest more in sustainability leadership, with CEO engagement on the rise.
Amid economic uncertainty, budget cuts and layoffs are disproportionately affecting DEIB leaders.
C-suites and boards have diverging assessments of the strategic value of social impact and sustainability work.
Anticipating challenges ahead, social impact and sustainability leaders are keen to build and activate their influence over their C-suite and boards, more so than other leadership ambitions.
Social Impact + Sustainability Profession
Scenario Planning Quick Start
Scenario planning is a stimulating and effective way of developing plans and contingencies that respond to a range of plausible forces on the horizon.
While many approaches to scenario planning are available, we offer a simple tool based on the estimated likelihood and potential impact of an event.
The visual to the right includes a handful of potential scenarios that relate to the topic of Social Impact + Sustainability Profession in 2024. These are inherently predictive, subjective, and likely to differ for any particular context. As such we offer these as a thought starter for your own scenario planning.
Social Impact + Sustainability Profession